Friday, April 20, 2007

Pointless Forecasting: A First Look

The GFS model has finally provided us with a look two weeks into the future, indicating weather patterns that will, in all probability, have no bearing on what actually happens. Nonetheless, it is fun to speculate, so here goes.

Below is the 500mb plot for Sunday, May 6, hour 384 from the model-run time. Scrolling through the data shows constant cycles of troughs heading in from the Pacific, each followed by strong surface return flow from the Gulf to replenish the moisture. This plot shows another low cruising in from the northwest, maybe providing a good setup for May 7 or 8.

Below you will find a forecast surface plot for the same time period. We see 15ยบ C dewpoints surging north out of the Gulf of Mexico, and a dryline roughly around the TX and OK panhandles.

It will be interesting to see how this evolves as the forecast period grows closer. If that Low comes in any later, we might even be able to blast west on May 6 and catch it.

Again, there's no way to tell what will actually happen, but now speculation can officially begin.