Partway there

Okay, so today didn't go exacly as planned. We made really good time until we ran into construction and lot of traffic on I-80W in Pennsylvania. We cut today's trip short and are staying at the Comfort Inn in New Columbia, PA.

We got to watch some fun little storms fire up in western MA, and tracked them on the XM WxWorx system. All you out folks there in readerland got to follow along, as well.

Going to go to sleep soon to get an early start tomorrow. Forecast is looking pretty consistent for Saturday and Sunday! Can't wait.

Chaser Positioning System

Well the car is locked down, wired up, and tricked out. Thanks to the amalgamation of several disparate technologies, you, the cyber-chaser, can now follow along in our misadventures. The patented Chaser Positioning System™ - CPS for short - provides real-time updates of location, speed, bearing, and position relative to storms. It will also have a near-real-time webcam feed from the car dashboard (provided I can fix the program that enables this feature during the car ride).

You can access the CPS here. A link is also available at the top of the navigation column to the right. ----->

Plan B

Okay, so here's the new plan. The fairly-recent 12Z GFS model run reveals some chase-worthy setups for Saturday and Sunday, and again later next week. That being the case, and assuming the windshield is replaced without any problems, we're going to head out Thursday morning.

Woo.

Oh well

So the windshield screwed us over for this week. The earliest I could get it replaced would be Tuesday, and by the time that happened and we drove west, the trough in the southern Plains which would have produced the severe weather would have passed. We could be on the road right now, but instead we'll have to wait for a few more days.

I will get the windshield replaced this week, and then we will look at the patterns next week for possibly some high Plains chasing next Wednesday, assuming sufficient moisture can get that far north.

Video: Curse of the Windshield

Pointless Forecasting: A First Look

The GFS model has finally provided us with a look two weeks into the future, indicating weather patterns that will, in all probability, have no bearing on what actually happens. Nonetheless, it is fun to speculate, so here goes.

Below is the 500mb plot for Sunday, May 6, hour 384 from the model-run time. Scrolling through the data shows constant cycles of troughs heading in from the Pacific, each followed by strong surface return flow from the Gulf to replenish the moisture. This plot shows another low cruising in from the northwest, maybe providing a good setup for May 7 or 8.



Below you will find a forecast surface plot for the same time period. We see 15º C dewpoints surging north out of the Gulf of Mexico, and a dryline roughly around the TX and OK panhandles.




It will be interesting to see how this evolves as the forecast period grows closer. If that Low comes in any later, we might even be able to blast west on May 6 and catch it.

Again, there's no way to tell what will actually happen, but now speculation can officially begin.

Video: Spring Break Preparations